80% of drivers braced for government U-turn on 2030 petrol and diesel new car sales ban: Auto trader
MANCHESTER, 4 JULY 2025 — The vast majority of UK drivers don’t believe the Government will stick to the plan to ban new petrol and diesel vehicle sales from 2030, as new Auto Trader data shows flatlining demand for new electric vehicles (EVs).
The latest Road to 2030 Report from Auto Trader, the UK’s largest automotive platform, shows electric share of new car enquiries is stuck at 18% so far this year after a surge in March when buyers rushed to beat April’s new tax measures. Whilst June new electric car figures show a healthy month, 2025 electric sales so far this year are sat below one in five.
New analysis from Auto Trader also shows that the current trajectory of new electric sales will result in just 45% market share by 2030, significantly short of the 80% Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate and the 2030 ban on sales of new internal combustion engine cars. Whilst the pace of adoption will speed up naturally, the rate of growth is currently inadequate and would need to more than double current levels to get to 80% by 2030. Electric share of sales has jumped up five percentage points in the last year - to achieve government goals, even an annual 10-percentage point increase would be insufficient.
Booming used electric market a potential threat to ZEV Mandate
More than two in five consumers are considering an EV for their next car, a seven-percentage point increase from 20241. With used EVs generating 15 times more sales enquiries than new EVs, and the volume of used EV enquiries on Auto Trader growing 92% since June 2023, it’s clear the used market will be key to unlocking mainstream adoption. While good news for the second-hand market, buyers bypassing the new market threaten to put EV sales targets under the ZEV mandate – 28% in 2025 - out of reach.
Manufacturer discounts on new EVs which have helped to fuel recent growth, are also now falling, down from record highs in March (12%) to 10% in May according to Auto Trader’s data. The tax changes introduced in April, including the Expensive Car Supplement and changes to Vehicle Excise Duty, which add over £600 to the price of a new electric vehicle, have also acted as a drag. A total of 42% of those surveyed said they are now less likely to go electric as a result of the increased motoring costs.²
With affordability still a concern for 52% of UK drivers,³ the research also found 78% of car buyers intend to spend less than £20,000 on their next car, while just 7.6% expect to spend £30,000 or more.4 There are now just 33 new EVs for sale £30,000 and under – up from 9 last year - compared to 108 ICE and hybrid vehicles.
This affordability gap is driving buyers towards 3-5-year-old electric cars, with Auto Trader reporting that almost nine in 10 (89%) of the new EV audience also view this age bracket. At the end of June, there were nearly 12,000 used EVs available on Auto Trader priced £20,000 and under, with a sixth of those £10,000 and under. By contrast, there are eight new electric models available under £20,000 compared to 17 ICE models - 42% of used EV enquiries on Auto Trader are for cars priced at £20,000 and under, compared to only 3% for new EVs.
There is genuine concern that 80% of consumers doubt the Government can meet its 2030 goal of banning new petrol and diesel vehicle sales. While the availability of affordable new and used EVs is increasing, and the £1.4 billion recently committed by the Government to support the transition is promising, it may take time for these improvements to reach and reassure the wider public."
“June’s numbers show a decent performance for the UK new car market, with registrations outperforming last year and a welcome rebound in retail demand as retailers work hard for sales. The standout story is the surge in electric vehicle sales, around a quarter of all registrations in June.
“Growing interest in more affordable, mass‑market EV models is driving the momentum with brands like BYD and MG, along with upcoming models such as the Renault 5, Skoda Elroq and Hyundai Inster, leading the way.
“We should sound a note of caution, though. New EV sales are still running below the 28% target for this year under the Zero Emissions Vehicle mandate. Moreover, on current trends, according to our latest Road to 2030 report we’re likely to fall well short of the 80% target in five years’ time”
New market forces in play as lower-cost new models tempt consumers
Whilst affordability is a blocker to the new electric market for many drivers, recent model launches have had great success, showing it is possible to produce low-cost electric vehicles that consumers love. Models like the Jaecoo 7 – the second most popular new car on Auto Trader in May - and the Dacia Spring, the most viewed new electric car on Auto Trader just weeks after launching, look set to play a significant role unlocking the transition.
Meanwhile, hybrids continue to gain market share, accounting for 37% of new car advert views on Auto Trader in May, up from 33% the previous month, following the Government’s extension to the ZEV Mandate allowing new hybrid sales until 2035.
Plummer added:
This data highlights that while EV interest is growing, the opportunity to convert curious buyers into confident adopters in their next car purchase is now and we have to act. We urgently need to rethink the expensive car supplement and vehicle excise duty tax changes and to focus on public information campaigns to enable consumers to feel good about making the switch.
With one in three new cars sold in the UK now having a plug, we know there’s consumer appetite for the new technologies now on offer. The issue has always been affordability and new electric models coming to market under £20,000 should help to close the gap between electric sales and transition targets. But this new analysis questions if that will be enough - there’s plenty for the industry and government to do now to set us up for success.
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